By Rosita Zilli, Policy Director, and Clara Vullo, Policy Officer

Competition for funding under the current Horizon Europe programme (2021–2027) is intensifying, with growing demand for research and innovation (R&I) support increasingly exceeding available resources. Two analyses published on 20 October by Science|Business, a specialised news outlet covering European research and innovation policy, highlight different aspects of this trend: fewer but larger collaborative research grants under Pillar II, and a sharp increase in applications for European Research Council (ERC) Starting Grants. These findings, alongside recent European Commission data documenting declining success rates across Horizon Europe, are particularly relevant as negotiations advance on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and FP10.

The first analysis, based on the European Commission's Horizon Dashboard, examines the evolution of collaborative research funding. Under Horizon Europe's Pillar II, €32.9 billion has so far been allocated to 5,271 projects involving 25,833 organisations, excluding co-fund actions. By comparison, the corresponding components of Horizon 2020 awarded €39.2 billion to 13,580 projects involving 35,118 organisations. Although Horizon Europe is still ongoing and the comparison therefore remains provisional, the figures suggest a shift towards larger collaborative grants. Four Horizon Europe projects have received at least €100 million, including two exceeding €200 million, whereas no comparable Horizon 2020 project reached the latter threshold. The 2026–2027 work programmes also foresee 35% fewer topics than in 2023–2024, with broader scopes and more projects funded per topic.

A second analysis highlights mounting competition for frontier research funding. Applications to the 2027 ERC Starting Grant call have increased by 60% to 7,710 proposals. With €594 million earmarked for approximately 373 grants under the ERC Work Programme 2027, the success rate could fall to just 4.8%, its lowest level since the inaugural call in 2007. Possible explanations for the surge in applications include broadened eligibility windows, the growing use of artificial intelligence in proposal preparation and weaker national support for fundamental research, although their respective contributions remain uncertain.

These developments reflect a broader challenge across Horizon Europe. A European Commission report published on 29 September confirms that securing funding is becoming increasingly competitive. Overall success rates fell from 17% in 2022 to 10% in 2025, while annual applications increased from just over 30,000 to more than 47,000. Around 55% of proposals met the evaluation thresholds for funding, yet only approximately one-quarter of these could be supported. According to Commission estimates, funding all proposals deemed worthy of support would have required more than €150 billion in additional resources beyond Horizon Europe's approximately €93.5 billion budget.

Similar pressures are visible across other Horizon Europe instruments. The European Innovation Council selected 43 projects from 2,103 proposals under its 2026 Pathfinder Open call, corresponding to a success rate of approximately 2%. Meanwhile, in response to exceptionally low success rates in researcher training and mobility schemes, the Commission announced additional funding for the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions. These examples illustrate how funding constraints affect different parts of the R&I landscape, from frontier science and researcher development to collaborative research and breakthrough innovation.

The findings come at a particularly important moment for negotiations on the EU's next long-term budget. The Commission's proposal for FP10 envisages €175 billion for 2028–2034, including €31.5 billion for the ERC, nearly doubling its current allocation, a level that ERC President Maria Leptin has argued should be considered a minimum. However, research funding is among the areas facing proposed reductions. The Irish Council Presidency's negotiating box would leave FP10 with approximately €158 billion, €17 billion below the Commission's proposal and €42 billion below the European Parliament's preferred €200 billion. The European Council of 15–16 October did not resolve the outstanding differences, and European Council President António Costa is expected to present a revised compromise ahead of further discussions in November.

Against this backdrop, falling success rates, growing demand and proposed cuts to FP10 risk widening the gap between Europe's research ambitions and its capacity to deliver on them. At a time when R&I is central to Europe's competitiveness, energy security and decarbonisation objectives, EERA will continue to closely follow the MFF and FP10 negotiations and advocate, in line with its established position, for an ambitious, well-funded programme that supports research excellence, strengthens collaborative R&I and ensures continuity from fundamental research through innovation to scale-up and deployment, with effective links across the entire R&I continuum.