Initially scheduled for publication on 26 February alongside the Clean Industrial Deal but repeatedly postponed, the European Commission is now expected to present the EU’s 2040 climate target on 2 July. Several Member States, most recently Austria, have pushed for more flexible rules, contributing to the delay. 

To secure sufficient backing, the Commission is therefore expected to propose a range of flexibilities. These could include allowing countries to follow a non-linear decarbonisation path, with most reductions occurring closer to 2040, as well as counting negative emissions from carbon capture towards the overall target. The Commission is also considering permitting the use of international carbon credits, which would mark a significant shift from the current framework based solely on domestic efforts. Germany, France and Poland are reportedly among those supporting this more permissive approach. 

Against the backdrop of these political discussions, and making the case for a robust 2040 target, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change published its latest report “Scientific advice for amending the European Climate Law: Setting climate goals to strengthen EU strategic priorities” on 2 June, in which it urges the EU to sustain momentum on climate action. The document considers the 90 to 95 percent reduction target both necessary and achievable, particularly in view of accelerating global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. It also argues that pursuing this level of ambition would strengthen the EU’s long-term competitiveness by driving clean technology innovation and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 

The authors underline that the proposed target is not only scientifically sound but also consistent with the EU’s strategic interests. They call for efforts to reduce internal disparities and support progress across all Member States. Alongside emissions reductions, the report advocates for stronger climate adaptation policies to enhance resilience and preparedness, citing mounting risks to ecosystems, infrastructure and public health. On carbon removals, it proposes setting three separate targets for 2040: one for gross emissions reductions, one for permanent removals of carbon dioxide, and another for temporary removals. 

Notably, the document firmly opposes the use of international carbon credits to meet the 2040 target, warning that such an approach could divert resources from critical investments in infrastructure, skills and innovation. It also raises concerns about the transparency and credibility of international credit systems. This is the first time the Advisory Board has taken a public stance during an ongoing political negotiation, while also reaffirming the importance of strengthening global partnerships in the fight against climate change. 

In line with these recommendations, on 4 June the European Energy Research Alliance joined the Solar Impulse Foundation and over 300 businesses and civil society organisations in urging European leaders to endorse the 90 percent net reduction target, emphasising that this ambition supports growth, jobs and competitiveness by cutting energy bills, boosting energy sovereignty and driving clean innovation. This joint call highlights that clear targets for renewables and efficiency build investment confidence, which is essential for sustainable economic welfare and aligns with the priorities of the current European Commission. 

Further underscoring the urgency of action, the World Meteorological Organization has released a new forecast outlining global temperature trends over the next five years. The report projects a continued rise in temperatures and a growing incidence of climate-related risks. Notably, there is an 80 percent probability that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record since observations began in 1850. There is also a 70 percent chance that the average global temperature between 2025 and 2029 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.