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News 27 March 2023

IPCC synthesis report: phase out coal by 2030, and all fossil fuels by 2040


On 20 March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the AR6 Synthesis Report. It integrates findings from six reports during IPCC’s eight-year AR6 cycle. The report will be the basis for more ambition at the UN climate conference COP28.

The document makes it clear that we have a choice to transition quickly to a renewable and equitable future or continue with inequality and climate pollution towards devastation. We are in a critical decade for climate action. Global emissions need to be reduced by nearly 43% by 2030. It is still possible to limit warming to 1.5C with rapid cuts to emissions. The price for renewable energy technology has fallen sharply, and the solutions are clear and achievable. We must phase out coal by 2030 and all fossil fuels by 2040. Scientists stress that wealthier countries, which have adequate technology and financial resources, must, in particular, accelerate their decarbonisation trajectories. At the same time, billions of poor people who bear the least responsibility for the climate emergency are already being hit hard.

The IPCC suggests that while the world needs to make “deep and rapid” cuts in gross emissions, the use of CO2 removal is “unavoidable” to reach net-zero, especially for sectors that are harder to decarbonise, such as shipping, aviation, industrial processes and some agriculture-related emissions.
Some of the mitigation options relate to changes in energy demand rather than supply. The report suggests that “changes in infrastructure use, end-use technology adoption and socio-cultural and behavioural change” can reduce emissions in end-use sectors by 40-70% by 2050. ‘Sufficiency’ is explicitly mentioned in the report and defined as a “set of measures and daily practices that avoid the demand for energy, materials, land, and water while delivering human well-being for all within planetary boundaries”.

Finance is named as one of the “critical enablers” to speed up climate action in the report, and lack of funding is a barrier to progress. Difficulty accessing climate finance slows down both mitigation and adaptation action, particularly in developing countries. To scale-up financial flows, the report says, there must be lower regulatory market barriers, a stronger alignment of public finance and more public funding to reduce the perceived risks of low-emission investments.

The IPCC makes a strong highlight of the multiple success stories of the efficiency of some mitigation policies that have enhanced energy efficiency, reduced rates of deforestation and accelerated technology deployment. Multiple evidence suggest that mitigation policies have already led to several gigatons of CO2-equivalent of avoided global emissions.